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| Forum » General » Forecasts and why I don't totaly trust them. | Date | |
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Username
436 msgs.
First-team player
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Why is player forecast so important in this game and why are high forecast players selling fo such high prices? I've been lucking at forecst of players for some time now and the majority of young players with forecst above 80 take so long to hit that predicted forecst that I often wonder if by that time I'd loose interest in playing sm. One Jr I saw had late 2016 as time he would reach 89 ave. Another thing I've always asked is what is the training algorithim for these forecsts? I assume that the forecast is the maximum average the player will reach but its possible to train a player to a high average but that player perforns less efectively than a player of lower average. How do we even know that we are training the player in such a way that the player will achieve their predicted forecast. is it possible that we could find a better training ratio than the the one used in forecast ? Also what if trainings is modified again by the @s? Also what happens if I buy a player and my coach is higher or lower than the previose team. Does the player forecast increase or decrease? Too many unanswered questions for me to feel justified paying excessive cash for players. What do you think? |
19/07/2012 22:26 |
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Fiscal
3449 msgs.
Best scorer
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There is a lot going on in your post but lets see if I can answer best I can. Every forecast does seem to max out in like 2015-2016, which you're right chances are a lot of us won't be playing at that point, however a few points on forecast. A higher forecast player is going to reach high numbers quicker than one with lower forecast. So if you started training 2 30 average CF's right now, one had 99 FC the other had 80 FC, at the end of the season their actual averages would be be different. It'd probably be slight, but it'd be there. It's unknown if any player will ever hit 99 average, but you're going to get higher average out of a player quicker with a higher FC. The game has only been around for just over 2 years, and there are already 90 average players, so forecasts run a little quicker than they show (at least till they get towards the top) It's unknown what the algorithm is, that's part of it. You've got to do your own research of sorts. You can have two players with the same average and same FC train entirely differently in one day based on what sort of training they've already had. If one player has a higher level of a stat than another it's gonna be different. For example: .149 training http://uk.strikermanager.com/jugador.php?id_jugador=4965385 .319 training http://uk.strikermanager.com/jugador.php?id_jugador=7085288 You'll notice the player on the bottom trained at a much higher rate of training, even though his average is higher than the other. The reason is because the guy on the top already has a much higher pass % than the other, and so he can't improve his average much more, however the other guy has a low pass average since he came from a manager that trained forwards. So really it's all about paying attention to your players stats. It'd be pointless to train guys so that only one or two skills were good and the rest were junk because even if they have a high average they're going to have weak spots. The best way to train your guys is to keep a close eye on their stats. If you're training Forwards, you could make a spreadsheet noting what their change in training for a specific skill was on a certain date, and check against the spreadsheet again when you did that training 2 weeks later to see how to optimize your training and see if maybe you need to run another training instead of that one for a moment. If you buy a player with a higher or lower coach than you the FC can change slightly, but unless you have a 0% coach, it's not going to be that drastic. |
19/07/2012 22:49 |
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Username
5205 msgs.
Golden Ball
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Simple. 1) better coach = higher forecast 2) if you don't train him all the time, the forecast will gradually drop 3) if you train a junior well (daily, with temp promotes), the forecast can actually rise 4) if you buy a high progression player who has not been trained, forecast can rise a few points within a week or two with good training 5) a well-trained, high average player will definitely out-perform a lower average player EXCEPT if the lower average player has many skill points. That can make this player over-perform in a game by a significant amount. Tactics matter, but if you use good tactics you can definitely see the difference between a better and a worse player. An example: 2 RWs, Oscar Milton and Rajesh Amit: http://uk.strikermanager.com/jugador.php?id_jugador=3581582 http://uk.strikermanager.com/jugador.php?id_jugador=4557031 I bought Rajesh on September 15 at 37 average, and at that point Oscar was at about 40 average. They are the same age. Rajesh's forecast is about 6 points higher than Oscar's with my 99 coach. Now, only 3 seasons later, Rajesh has gained almost 39 points (tomorrow he hits 76 average) and Oscar has gained 28 points, so Rajesh is 8 points better than Oscar who is at 68 average! Does that help clarify the difference in forecast? Because it is substantial, as you can see. Just a few points difference in ultimate forecast can be a training difference of months. Oscar will probably reach 76 in the middle of next season, whereas Rajesh has a chance of approaching 80 by the time he's 19. Forecast absolutely matters, it is a way to measure progression (rate of improvement) without having to know the actual progression value. |
20/07/2012 03:41 |
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Username
436 msgs.
First-team player
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Thanks for the explanations guys. by the way I get Jrs straight from school where i can see progression already. since ive seen persons lie about forecast to get players sold. | 20/07/2012 03:49 |
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Username
2897 msgs.
Best scorer
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If someone lies to you about FC or progression, gather the evidence and report them to an @. That's a serious violation of game rules. | 20/07/2012 03:53 |
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Username
5205 msgs.
Golden Ball
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Yes. It is possible to make a forecast visible. Never trust a stated forecast unless you can see it with your eyes. I'm not talking about a screenshot either. Their should be a button at the top of the player's profile called "forecast" | 20/07/2012 04:02 |
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Username
5633 msgs.
Golden Ball
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..Unless you have less than 8000 experience, in which case, you won't see that button until you have 8000+  |
20/07/2012 04:12 |
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Username
5205 msgs.
Golden Ball
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Even for other manager's players? | 20/07/2012 13:35 |
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Username
5633 msgs.
Golden Ball
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No you can see other players FC if they're visible, just not your own. This is useful to know because if someone comes to you and says I just got a 95 FC player from my school, you'll know they're lying if they have less than 8000 exp because they have no way of knowing that. Edited by @practicesquad 22-07-2012 05:36 |
22/07/2012 05:36 |
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